I once said sothing like this before.
That despite being founded later than Alpha Fund—the one I manage as a regressor—there exists a hedge fund even larger in scale.
That fund is LTCM.
Its full na is Long-Term Capital Managent. A true gathering of elites, boasting Nobel Prize–winning economists as key partners...
[LTCM executes bold ‘big deal’: simultaneously shorting U.S. Treasury bonds and buying Russian governnt bonds]
[“Russian bonds are undervalued,” says LTCM representative—GKO prices surge]
—Rustle.
When I saw today’s newspaper, I couldn’t hold back a smirk. It felt like watching a slapstick cody.
“Mm. Truly, people should remain humble. Always humble.”
I gently covered my slightly flushed face with one hand and cald my thoughts. Right, I shouldn’t think so ill of my seniors. Without future knowledge, I could’ve ended up like that too.
“....”
But still, I couldn’t help but think it.
‘Ha, even after coming back to the past, you’re still the sa. As famous as ever. What on earth were those seniors thinking?’
Back when I was active, they were notoriously infamous on Wall Street. The reason is... well, just look—
[LTCM estimated to be leveraged at minimum 10x... Concern grows over Russian bond investnts]
Investing like mad like that—of course, all it takes is one misstep to go bust.
Yep, yep.
“By the way, didn’t you say that Charles guy was going to join LTCM before ending up with Alpha Fund?”
Seo Ji-yeon poked her head in, blinking her round eyes as she asked.
“Ahaha, that’s right. I an, LTCM has so seriously famous nas. For soone like Charles, who was basically a closet academic, thinking that way was only natural. I really respect those folks too. Aren’t we just friendly competitors?”
When I played it off like that, she tilted her head.
“You say that, but you really seem to hate LTCM....”
Oh, co on. It’s just business. No matter how much you respect your ntors, if they fall asleep holding the money bag, sneaking it out of their arms is industry standard.
Anyway.
The most famous people at LTCM? You can’t leave out these two.
Scholes and rton—Nobel laureates in economics.
They’re the ones who developed the ‘Black-Scholes model,’ or more precisely, the ‘Black-Scholes-rton model,’ which laid the foundation for financial engineering. In short, they’re the Newtons of finance.
When I first went to Ha Joo-seong and dove into this ga, I made good use of that formula too.
Ah, you’re # Nоvеlight # wondering where Mr. Black is?
Fischer Black passed away recently in 1995, before even turning 60.
Considering that Scholes and rton are about to receive the Nobel Prize in October of this year—1997—it’s a bit tragic.
Regardless of their involvent with LTCM, the fact that they received the Nobel in their 50s is testant enough to their brilliance.
So... honestly, I don’t think I need to feel guilty.
Even before I was born—and up until the day I died in my previous life—those two had held tenured professorships for decades.
Even if they lose so money, their honor remains. ? I had neither.
***
Though the winter of 1997 was in full force, Russia still had so strength left in it.
“Hm, I think it might be ti to pull out of East Asia... What do you think?”
It hadn’t even been that long since he returned to Wall Street, yet Ha Yeong-il ca to right away for my opinion.
Well, in tis like this—when volatility is off the charts—it’s only natural to seek answers.
I smiled softly and answered him.
“Not yet. You know the capital still stuck in Korea? That can’t be moved to the U.S. anyway. A short can only be hit once, but for Korea, winter’s just beginning.”
“...Ah, right.”
Ha Yeong-il nodded awkwardly.
It felt like so much had already happened, and yet the so-called “IMF era” hadn’t even begun. Even though plenty of companies had gone bankrupt already, there were still plenty more to co.
“Once Hyunseon Group goes under, we’ll need to carve it up piece by piece... and there’s a clear shot at dealing serious damage to Mirae as well. Swallowing it whole would be best, but Mirae Group isn’t exactly easy prey.”
Western and Eastern companies feel a bit different. You can’t buy them at market price.
In Korea, a conglorate usually functions like a fiefdom run by its founder. A massive fortress that spans political and financial sectors—sothing money alone can’t quantify.
“So then, the dotcom bubble and this Russian crisis... are we handling both with Alpha Fund money? Feels like we might not have enough.”
We were short on funds.
Surprisingly, that was true. Despite public perception, Alpha Fund was sitting on a massive $330 billion, and yet I still had to ration every drop of paint to finish my picture.
“The investnt bank setup is costing more than expected. If not for that, we’d be fine.”
I grumbled lightly.
Seriously, Wall Street wolves are all the sa.
Now that Alpha Fund had grown far too big to be called “just a hedge fund,” rival banks and funds were beginning to feel threatened and started pushing back.
It’s a problem money can fix—but right now, that money was tight.
“Then should we put the investnt bank on hold and focus on Russia?”
“No, let’s sort out the dotcom stocks instead.”
I shook my head. Honestly, pausing the bank project wouldn’t wreck the plan, but if I showed even a hint of retreat here, they’d start underestimating later.
And...
“The bubble has reached a point of near-madness. Even I’m finding it hard to predict what’s next, so it’s better to pull out now while we can.”
Ha Yeong-il looked visibly shocked.
“You’re saying even you find this hard to predict...? That’s surprising.”
“Why? I’m not a god. I can’t know everything.”
“I figured you at least had so kind of future-seeing superpower.”
“....”
Do you really believe that?
...Well, considering the insane things I’ve pulled off, it’s understandable. In a way, I do see the future.
Hmm... I hope none of our fund mbers end up joining Scientology or so nonsense thinking they’ll gain psychic powers. I’d like to believe not.
“Ahem. Anyway, understood. We’ll start selling off dotcom stocks and take a short position on Russia.”
Sensing my gaze, Ha Yeong-il cleared his throat and changed the subject.
“Ah, but don’t sell Microsoft. And keep so of the others too—we’ll re-enter after the bubble bursts. Only fully sell off the stocks that rose purely due to hype.”
“...And how are we supposed to determine that? If we could tell which prices were a bubble, the bubble wouldn’t have ford in the first place.”
Ha Yeong-il tilted his head, puzzled.
“I’ll send you the list. We’ve been buying up dotcoms indiscriminately, right? Of course there’s a bunch of junk. Just sell everything except what’s on my list.”
I can’t personally manage Alpha Fund’s entire portfolio. The fund’s simply too big now.
Still... I can point them in the right direction. Just look at the top 500 IT companies, keep only the solid ones, and dump the rest.
Sure, maybe I’ll end up selling off so unknown future giants... but trying to capture theoretical maximum profit in stock investing is plain foolish.
“Hmm, so... basically, you know which stocks will rise and fall.”
I felt a strange look in his eyes.
“...That’s one way to put it? But it’s not like I’m the only one who knows. And the most important part—‘when’—even I don’t know.”
Back during the financial crisis, so many people shouted “big short.” But the ones who actually pulled it off? A tiny few.
And even those few... it was half-luck.
“Understood.”
His expression said he didn’t believe a word of it.
“...Yeah. Good work.”
It was a misunderstanding that worked in my favor. The more they overestimate , the stronger the internal loyalty becos.
***
As I told Ha Yeong-il, I may know how things will unfold in the future—but not when they’ll happen.
A wise person can infer future trends, and with my future knowledge, I can make those inferences more precise. But the exact timing is shaped by human madness and chaos.
Even Warren Buffett—called the Sage of Omaha—prioritizes value investing. He might know what companies will grow, but not when.
Thus, it’s in the realm of derivatives and short-term trading—where milliseconds matter—that luck and instinct decide victory...
But sotis, there are monts when skill can bridge that gap.
“I heard the news. They say Russia’s collapsing?”
Yoo Seon-jun, director and de facto owner of BBB, ca to see .
For the record, BBB is a bank with deep ties to Russian corporations. Naturally, that’s all thanks to Lee Si-hyun.
So, I was able to answer him with a bright smile.
“Yeah. I’d love it if you could help a bit.”
The future isn’t sothing to be predicted. It’s sothing to be created.
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