"Ah, they're finally going to war. I told you, even if these guys beg with snot, tears, and everything else running late, the Western big brothers won't forgive them. Thanks to that, I'm enjoying my oil long position nicely."
└Hello, I'm here on a pilgrimage.
└As expected of the Bear Hunter, though they talk casually, this person is the real deal. Never seen them wrong about Russia, for real.
└Are you Putin? National Intelligence Service, confess honestly!
"National Intelligence Service my foot. I'm soone who's already been investigated by them."
While comnts flood in calling the prophetic Bear Hunter or Putin de Nostradamus who saw the future, I can only sneer at such occult treatnt.
It's Russia. That Russia. The stubborn bear-like country where the fundantals never change even when political systems change, ideologies change, and regis change.
People can change in 10 years, yet how does a country not change in 150 years?
Now even an individual like has co to predict national directions.
"I hope no one's caught protagonist syndro and is trying to short in this crazy natural gas graph?
The graph hasn't even started yet. If you're confident you won't shake in a magnitude 9.0 natural gas earthquake, go ahead and try, if not, just wait exactly one year. It'll crash terribly and then there'll be another chance to go long.
How do I know? Ha, because it's Russia. They'll definitely refuse to admit they're struggling, hold out, then beg everyone to buy cheap, and get sulky and raise prices again."
└Wow, I was waiting for the short timing after reading your previous post, but good thing I didn't.
└Get out of my head while you're saying nice things. This is your last warning.
└Brother, gas prices tripled from last year's price just one month into the war, how can I resist? If I hit even one out of five shorts, I could turn my life around.
└(Author) Go ahead. If you want to blow your entire fortune on the Russian earthquake.
I admit it. They can say such things because they don't understand Russian-style warfare yet.
They probably think it'll be a short war because it's modern warfare, and with Ukraine receiving robust Western support, it feels like Russia is fighting the whole world.
"But in Russia, disregard for human life is just traditional culture."
I typed on my laptop to write today's blog post.
"As I've said repeatedly, Russia's end to the war will be the sa this ti too. They'll celebrate it as victory, but in reality, they'll be crying their eyes out behind closed doors because they're more hurt than anyone.
Huh? Why will it end like that?
Because that's the promise (nods)."
└Haha, already promised to end it that way haha.
└Who did they promise? Is there such a treaty?
└Promised with the Japanese Environnt Minister.
└It's a Slavic tradition passed down through generations. A victory without gain. A victory only for themselves. A victory no one else acknowledges. Usually when great powers get high on war, this country scrapes the bottom of national power through war and steals food.
A blog full of mockery and sarcastic comnts. Though I posted it myself, the content is genuinely serious despite such internet public opinion.
My rising corner of the mouth couldn't quite turn into a smile at the usual reactions.
"Sigh, I'm really frustrated. I'm really frustrated about all of this."
Not being proactive and getting dragged along, then flipping the table when they don't like it later.
Diplomacy is originally like trade, a process of giving and receiving. It's a process where mutual national interests are generated.
However, Russia either recklessly gives bad debt they can't collect or sotis swallows sothing without opening their own pocket.
Diplomacy that neither protects nor gains anything.
That's Russian-style diplomacy that's continued since the 19th century.
If diplomacy is like this, what about internal affairs? While every country's history has periods of prosperity and decline, this country's pri was the Soviet era when people could barely make a living, which says it all.
"It wasn't even a golden age. When Arica was painting with paint, this was a country painting with the blood of its people."
It's never been a normal country.
Common sense has never existed.
This country just seems to operate in its own way.
Yet why hasn't Russia collapsed?
Ah, historically, Russia has co close to collapse many tis. Right away during Napoleon's ti, and during Nazi tis they almost lost their capital.
Just one reason.
Weight class.
They've made it this far purely on weight class alone. It's not that they did anything particularly well. They don't have any particular strengths.
Vast territory and population. That is, weight class. This country has survived until now on weight class advantage.
And today in modern tis, they're in the process of cutting their own flesh again.
Though I laugh and mock along with blog subscribers now, it wasn't like this from the beginning.
As a humanities graduate, I majored in history pursuing what I loved and dread of traveling the world to uncover the past.
But reality's walls were too high, and the world was a place that pursued the future rather than the past.
So I too decided to look at the future. Through the past.
Russian economy expert.
Stocks, bonds, futures, anything goes.
Because how Russia will react is so obvious to my eyes.
What? Oil prices are going crazy? Ah, first ignore it, then belatedly maximize production!
Oh, problems can't be solved through diplomacy? Then first move the military. Let's try to find international justification later.
Thoughtless opening led to serious foreign capital exploitation... but dostic capital is all rotten too.
Okay, let's overturn everything. Beat down dostic capital, create an atmosphere of fear to drive out foreign capital. Hit the restart button!
Fairness? Common sense? Those are like 160% voter turnout in that country. Since the result is already decided, the process is just a part to be fitted.
It's so obvious that I made money sitting in place today too. Liquidated oil long position profit rate 123%.
With the surprise war, Brent crude, Dubai crude, and WTI production volus belatedly surge.
"I should slowly start taking new positions."
If they had carefully laid out the justification for war and given the impression that 'wow, both sides had no choice but war,' they wouldn't be cornered like this.
Even if they had turned it into a local conflict or partial war and made it seem like Ukraine voluntarily expanded the war, they wouldn't be surrounded on all sides like this.
No, from the beginning this war was just ssed up.
The West ignoring the power hunger of a dictator president.
NATO's reckless eastward expansion and conflict with integration policies in forr Soviet regions.
All of it was foreseeable.
And I made money using this... made it but.
"...Why can't I smile?"
The world told to live future-oriented so I rode along with that too. So I produced results anyone would applaud but why aren't I happy?
"I really feel sorry for all of this."
I try to attribute my continued bad mood to feeling sorry about the current tragic situation.
"I used to be happy all day just reading one history book."
The past that remains only in records.
When digging into events that remain only in text and a few pictures or illustrations, it felt like I was right there in that era, in that event.
I think I approached history not just as records but as a ans of indirect experience.
Back then I was like that. I just loved humanity's past unconditionally.
I sympathized with unfortunate results and empathized with sad histories.
But now I...
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