“What’s with the waterworks?”
Yoo Seon-jun showed up after lunch, chewing gum obnoxiously.
I was in a sour mood after envisioning a very unpleasant future, so I snapped back at him.
“Cramps. What, you got a problem?”
“...”
Total lie, but hey—he’s a guy, he won’t know the difference. Not that I wanted to know the truth, either.
“Anyway, co sit down, oppa. I’ve got a fun new plan.”
“...Already?”
He shot that of course you do look and flopped into the seat with his legs crossed.
Thunk.
Such awful posture.
“So, we’re gonna short the British pound, right?”
“Yeah?”
“So then... what else could we do with that?”
“What do you an, what else? Can’t you just stop already?”
Seon-jun gave a look like I was beyond hope.
Co on—might as well squeeze every drop from it while I’m at it.
“I, uh, may have scattered a few breadcrumbs in the past...”
If Britain’s pouring all its resources into defending the pound, it ans... they’re not paying much attention to dostic corporations.
Now let’s dig up a mory.
Do you rember Nick Leeson, the rookie at Barings Bank?
After closing so successful contracts with Alpha Fund and racking up results, Leeson got promoted to head of the Singapore branch just three years in.
Originally, he was only supposed to handle futures. But thanks to my ddling, a juicy little derivative product called CDS ca into play—and that gave Leeson a very bad idea.
—“Wait, I take on the risk if the company defaults? So as long as they don’t default, it’s guaranteed profit?!”
Well... yes, technically.
Thanks to that logic, Leeson went around selling CDSes like candy with Alpha Fund’s backing and sent the stock price soaring.
—“But wouldn’t it be bad if the companies that issued those bonds go bankrupt?”
Such rational concerns didn’t apply to Leeson and his infamous 88888 account.
He simply shifted losses to a hidden account and only reported the profitable trades. Voilà, you get an eye-watering 1,000% return rate.
It’s the sa BS logic as “if you ignore the losses, I’m undefeated.” And sohow, it worked. The historic Barings Bank, which even the Count of Monte Cristo used in fiction, never noticed he’d racked up over $1 billion in hidden losses in the original tiline.
Makes you wonder how a bank could survive that long with such crappy oversight. Well, they didn’t. That’s why they collapsed.
Talk about a convoluted, absurd ss.
And now that sa guy’s working for .
“Aha, so what ★ 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 ★ you’re saying is... you’ve got one of the UK’s hottest investnt bank employees as your mole? And you’ve been egging him on, stoking moral hazard, all to destroy a centuries-old bank like Barings?”
“Yup yup. Fun, right?”
“...Yeah. Fun, I guess.”
That face scread not remotely convinced.
“Okay, now think about this. By the end of this year or early next year, the Soviet Union’s going to collapse. You get that, right?”
“Wait, what? That’s completely absurd! The USSR is going to collapse this year?”
“And then their sovereign bonds and export-related companies will tank. Which ans a bunch of corporate bonds are going to default. That triggers CDS payouts, making Leeson’s losses even worse. So he’ll panic and double down, and self-destruct.”
“...And?”
“And what do you an and?! Germany’s Bundesbank keeps hiking interest rates... The Bank of England is fixated on defending the pound... And then we swoop in and acquire the collapsed Barings Bank. Done!”
The key part of the plan was toppling Barings early. Everything else proceeds according to the original tiline... but I’ll be bringing Barings down 3 to 4 years ahead of schedule.
“....”
Seon-jun stared at like I was a lunatic.
“Well? Isn’t it brilliant? The best part is snatching it up before the UK even has ti to set up a bailout!”
In the original history, Barings didn’t get a bailout either—but still, with history altered, I needed to build a failsafe.
“...So.”
He swallowed hard. I looked at him with wide, innocent eyes.
“What? Got more questions?”
“Uh... um... I dunno. Ha-yeon, I’m out. Thanks for lunch.”
Whoosh.
Seon-jun bolted. I grabbed his sleeve and gave a dramatic thumbs-down.
“Boo, coward. Where’s your gambler’s pride?”
“Look, I may like gambling, but this isn’t it. You’re not playing poker—you’re flipping the casino and stealing the chips. What the hell, did a god possess you or sothing?”
I shook my head.
Typical nonbeliever.
“Oppa, in that case, can you at least check one thing for ?”
“What?”
“Head over to the Singapore branch and find out how much Nick Leeson’s been hiding so far. That’s not gambling—it’s risk managent, right?”
“...That much, I can do.”
He finally gave in, albeit reluctantly.
***
March.
Daehwa Investnt Bank.
Seon-jun ca back to see again, eyes glazed like a stunned idiot.
“...What the hell is this? How... how did you even...?”
He held a file in one hand and demanded an answer.
“What? I don’t know the exact details. Just had a hunch. That’s why I sent you, rember?”
“Right, yeah. Goddamn...”
To be fair, even I wasn’t sure where Leeson stood right now. He definitely had the power to wreck Barings on his own, but that required trust—and I figured the losses would still be low at this stage.
But since he used to deal in Nikkei futures and had ties to Alpha Fund, digging around wasn’t too hard, apparently.
Thud.
Seon-jun handed the file. I’d just gotten ho from school, so I shoved my elentary textbooks aside and opened the docunts.
“How much are we talking ab—”
[Investigation reveals that Account 88888 has an estimated loss of $50 million, or approximately ₩60 billion.]
“...Hmm.”
...Okay, what the hell.
I was speechless.
Hasn’t it only been two years? We’re not even that close yet. Can we not skip ahead like this?
Sure, we’re not just dealing in futures anymore, but still—already $50 million in losses?
And how did this co out so easily? Why didn’t Barings catch on back then?
I’ve only been pushing Leeson for two years...
“...Haaah, thank god.”
I heard Seon-jun sigh behind . I tilted my head and asked,
“What’s so great? That we’ll have an easier ti acquiring Barings?”
He shook his head.
“No. That you still have so common sense. Honestly, the fact that there’s sothing you don’t know is oddly comforting.”
“I always act rationally, you know.”
“Sure you do. Totally.”
I an it.
Assuming I know the future, my actions are perfectly logical.
“Uh... so... what now?”
I slowly worked my brain back into motion. Seon-jun looked at seriously.
“Can you even afford to acquire them? If we buy the bank, we’re also taking on their debt. We shouldn’t be goading Leeson—we should be putting the brakes on.”
As ridiculous as it sounded, he was right.
Originally, I planned to pull the trigger early and cap the damage at $1 billion instead of the full $1.4 billion. But at this rate, we’re in trouble.
If it’s already $50 million in early 1991... once the USSR collapses later this year, the loss is going to jump past $500 million.
By the ti we short the pound in late 1992...
If things stay on this trajectory, we’re looking at maybe $2 billion?
What is this, insanity?
Even I wouldn’t go that far. I may be ruthless, but I’m not stupid.
What, does he think sticking his head in the sand makes the danger invisible? Sure, no one noticed—yet—but still...
With a rough projection of $2 billion in losses, maybe more, this is going to spiral. Yeah, I introduced CDS to the world for this purpose, but this is way too soon.
I’m not paying that off.
I need to save up plenty of ammo to go corporate hunting in the post-Soviet economy—there’s no way I’m dumping that kind of cash into Barings.
I’d just be cleaning up soone else’s ss for free.
A dry laugh escaped .
“Well, this is ridiculous. Sigh... I guess I’ll have to do a good deed for once.”
This could very well wreck the British economy. Looks like I’ll have to shed a tear and personally bail Barings out a little early.
“And where’s the money coming from?”
“Hmm... well, guess I’ll have to shake down the Bank of England and a few hedge funds a bit harder. I think $1.5 billion should do.”
“...So it’s basically the Bank of England giving you bailout money.”
“Tsk, it’s different. That’s that, this is this.”
They’ve got no cash, so I’m generously offering to take on the debt for them. They should be thanking .
I an... if you ignore the minor detail that I’m the reason they have no cash, I’m morally in the clear.
Hey—we didn’t know either, okay?
Barings was going to go down even worse in the original tiline. I just put them out of their misery early. And the Bank of England still got wrecked back then too.
Sigh...
Man, I’m kind of a good person, huh.
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