On May 20, 1874, the Russian governnt declared war on Poland. That very afternoon, Russian troops crossed the border and launched an attack on the Kingdom of Poland, igniting yet another Russo-Polish conflict.
From the onset of the Russo-Polish conflict to the outbreak of war, less than a week had passed, a level of efficiency that surprised Franz and changed his perception of the Russian governnt.
The reforms of Alexander II were clearly reflected in this newfound efficiency, as in the past, the Russian governnt would have taken months to prepare for such an action.
The sudden outbreak of the Russo-Polish War left many stunned. European governnts had no ti to react before the war had already begun.
In London, Pri Minister Gladstone felt utterly exhausted. Between dealing with the dostic election and the shifting European political landscape, even the pressing Irish issue had to be postponed.
“The Near East War is still ongoing, and now the Russians have started a war with the Poles. Have they already forgotten the lesson of their last multi-front conflict? Can soone explain what has happened?”
Based on his vast political experience, Pri Minister Gladstone was sure that the Russo-Polish War wasn’t triggered by just one conflict. There had been over a hundred skirmishes between the two countries in recent years, yet this ti, it escalated into a full-blown war.
Looking at the swift actions of the Russians, it was clear that this was preditated. The Near East War had distracted Britain, leading the British governnt to assu that Russian military preparations were aid at the Ottoman Empire.
In fact, Britain had been devising ways to preserve the Ottoman Empire. Now, there was no need to worry. By provoking the Russo-Polish War, the Russian governnt no longer had the capacity to invest further in the Near East War.
Foreign Secretary Maclean reported, “Pri Minister, based on the intelligence we’ve gathered, the Poles are in deep trouble.
The Prussian governnt is not eager to send troops to aid the Kingdom of Poland. Since the outbreak of war, they have neither mobilized their forces nor shown much urgency.
The Polish royal election is imminent, and William I has very high support. Under normal circumstances, his election is almost certain.
The current Polish governnt poses the greatest obstacle. There are signs that the Polish governnt plans to intervene in the election through irregular ans to block William I.
The Prussians are ambitious about Poland, and it’s not surprising that they’re using the tactic of ‘killing with a borrowed knife’ to overthrow the Polish governnt in advance.
Based on the current situation, it seems likely that Prussia and Russia have reached a secret agreent. The Austrian governnt has yet to take any action, and we are still uncertain about their role in all of this.
By the way, Prussian diplomats have been very active recently, eting frequently with the leadership of various European nations. Just three days ago, I had an in-depth discussion with the Prussian envoy to Britain about the Polish issue.
To counter the Russian threat, they are looking to form a Prussian-Polish federation and are seeking our support.
It’s highly probable that Prussia has also engaged in talks with France and Austria, but it remains unclear whether they’ve reached any deals.”
Pri Minister Gladstone nodded. This explanation made sense. The sudden outbreak of the Russo-Polish War would be hard to explain if Prussia and Poland hadn’t noticed it in advance.
However, if Prussia and Russia were secretly colluding, then everything made sense. The Prussians helped the Russian governnt cover up their plans, creating the conditions for a Russian attack on Poland, and the Polish governnt being left in the dark was no surprise.
Unlike other governnts, the Polish governnt was a mishmash of interests, with almost every great power planting spies within it.
Prussia had the strongest influence in Poland, with many in the Polish governnt bought off by the Prussian governnt. Additionally, the Polish governnt was its own worst enemy, constantly at odds with the military. With such a fractured system, intercepting key intelligence would have been easy.
Pri Minister Gladstone frowned, “If the Austrians are involved, this could be the fourth partition of Poland by Prussia, Russia, and Austria.
That’s a worrying sign. If we allow them to continue unchecked, there may not be many countries left on the European continent.
If Austria wasn’t involved, then what concessions did Prussia and Russia offer to gain their tacit approval?
Similarly, what promises did the Prussian governnt make to France in exchange for their support? Or perhaps they haven’t secured French backing at all.
These are crucial questions we need to answer. I doubt Prussia and Russia would move forward with a partition of Poland without first securing understanding from both Austria and France.
Whatever benefits they’ve offered Austria and France must be substantial. Prussia and Russia are both financially weak, with diocre industrial and economic strength, so the rewards are unlikely to be economic. Therefore, the answer becos clear.
In any case, we must prevent their deal from succeeding. Otherwise, Austria and France will grow far too powerful.”
British foreign policy has always followed a path dictated by its own interests, and when analyzing problems, it consistently incorporates a strong elent of self-interest into its calculations.
Using this thod of analysis, many subtle issues beco much clearer. By tracing the interests involved, a great deal can be uncovered.
In major power strategies, nothing can truly remain hidden. There are always countless eyes watching. However, no country can have just one single strategy. Among the many strategies, there is always a hierarchy of priorities, and this order changes with the shifts in international circumstances.
Currently, it’s generally acknowledged in Europe that France’s most important strategy is consolidating control over Italy, followed by expanding into Central Europe and seizing the territory west of the Rhine.
For Austria, the most important strategy is unifying the German states, specifically the German Federal Empire, where public support is high. The secondary strategy is expanding toward the Ottoman Empire.
Because of the mutual constraints between European nations, France’s second strategy remains unachievable, and Austria’s apparent main strategy is similarly stuck.
But if France and Austria were to reach an agreent and Prussia and Russia were to tacitly allow them to proceed, the situation would be entirely different. The remaining countries would find it impossible to oppose them.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Largo Lloyd remarked, “The situation isn’t as bad as it seems. If it really ca to that point, France and Austria would be forced into a showdown.
Clearly, neither France nor Austria is ready for war at this mont. At least not before they’ve finished clearing the field, I don’t think a war will break out until then.
Of course, to prevent such a situation, I think it’s necessary to strengthen the German Federal Empire.
If the Prussians want to annex Poland, let them give up the Rhineland. For Prussia, it’s an isolated territory anyway, and it’s constantly eyed by the French.
Rather than letting it fall into French hands and strengthen them, it would be better to hand it over to the German Federal Empire. Then France and Austria would be forced to keep each other in check.”
This is clearly a conspiracy. With the French Empire currently at the height of its power, being their neighbor is a tough position, with mounting pressure on national defense.
The Rhineland was just an isolated territory for Prussia, and with the Russian Empire as a looming threat in the east, if France decided to attack, Prussia would have no ans to resist.
Since they can’t defend it, the importance of the Rhineland in the Prussian governnt’s eyes diminishes greatly. Many would likely agree to trade it in exchange for annexing Poland.
The British, in suggesting giving the Rhineland to the German Federal Empire, clearly have ulterior motives. Once the Rhineland is integrated into the Confederation, France and Austria would be forced to continuously counterbalance each other.
Even if the Austrian governnt wanted to compromise and divide an enlarged German Federal Empire with the French, the German people wouldn’t agree!
Nationalism dictates that if France sets its sights on the Rhineland, Austria must side with the German Federal Empire, leaving the Austrian governnt with no room for concessions.
Similarly, if Austria sought to annex the German Federal Empire, France would never agree. How could France’s strategic security be guaranteed if Austrian influence extended west of the Rhine?
Unless one side falls, the other’s goals cannot be realized. Under these conditions, Britain can play a balancing act between France and Austria.
Whether a power imbalance erges between France and Austria in the future is a problem for another ti. Britain’s foreign policy has always focused on the present, not chasing after so uncertain, distant future.
No one can predict what will happen decades or even centuries from now. Today’s ally could be tomorrow’s enemy, and the day after tomorrow, they might be an ally again. Long-term diplomatic foresight is essentially a joke.
Pri Minister Gladstone remarked, “This issue isn’t urgent. First, leak the information to the German Federal Empire. If they want the Rhineland, they’ll have to pay a price.
Once they get the Rhineland, the German Federal Empire’s power will greatly increase, making them a strong power on the continent, just behind Spain.
We’ll have to work hard to persuade the Prussians and smooth things over with the French, so the Germans can’t expect to get away without paying so cost!”
Gladstone quickly made his assessnt. The likelihood that Prussia would give up the Rhineland seed high, as it would rid them of the French threat.
As for the losses incurred, the German Federal Empire could easily make up for them. The Confederation consisted of so of the wealthiest German territories, and their finances were far stronger than those of the Prussian governnt, so they could pay a good price.
With that money, many issues could be resolved, and Prussia would have a fighting chance in the next war against Russia.
As the broker in all of this, Britain could also gain political leverage and expand its influence within the German Federal Empire.
...
The outside world was completely unaware of the internal discussions within the British governnt, as everyone’s attention was focused on the wars.
With the Near East War and the Russo-Polish War breaking out simultaneously, people were eagerly waiting for the reactions from Prussia and Austria. Many speculated whether a full-scale European war might erupt.
Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire could be seen as allies, united in their opposition to Russia, just short of signing a formal treaty.
Russia and Austria were also allies, and in theory, the Russian governnt now had the opportunity to drag Austria into the conflict. If full-scale war broke out between the two sides, the combined forces of Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire would undoubtedly be no match for Russia and Austria, and they would be forced to drag others into it.
At this point, however, such fantasies must end. On May 23, 1874, the Austrian Foreign Ministry declared its position: the Austrian governnt would maintain absolute neutrality in the Russo-Polish War.
With that announcent, everyone could breathe easier. There would be no continental war, and the smaller nations no longer needed to worry about choosing sides.
In Ankara, the decision by the Austrian governnt greatly disappointed Sultan Abdulaziz I who had hoped a full-scale European war would ease so of the military pressure on his empire.
Now, there was no need to think about it anymore. European countries weren’t foolish—without any benefit, who would want to go to war? Austria’s decision to stay neutral in the Russo-Polish War wasn’t surprising to anyone.
Territorial expansion on the European continent was extrely difficult, with the biggest obstacle being legal justification. Austria had no legal claim to Poland, and seizing territory there would be entirely illegitimate.
This was very different from expanding in the Balkans. Taking land from the Ottoman Empire didn’t require worrying about legal issues or facing condemnation from public opinion. The Austrian governnt would be seen as a “liberator,” not an invader.
But seizing Poland was a different matter. Despite its unpopularity, Poland was still a recognized sovereign state, and taking its territory would be viewed as an act of aggression.
Unable to seize territory, and with the Polish governnt being penniless, waging war wouldn’t even recover military expenses. It was normal for Austria to have no interest in Poland.
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