On April 21, 1874, Napoleon III passed away at the Palace of Versailles. The news quickly overshadowed the Near East War, drawing everyone’s attention to Paris.
At the Vienna Palace, Franz sighed deeply. A competitor was gone, just like that. After adjusting his emotions, Franz quickly regained his composure.
“With Napoleon III gone, France’s power transition will inevitably lead to so turbulent tis. For the ti being, we don’t need to worry about threats from the west. We must seize the mont to advance our next steps.
Our people in Prussia and Britain can begin their operations. This shift in the European landscape will influence the international order for decades to co. We absolutely cannot let the situation spiral out of control.”
Strategic planning is always troubleso. A single misstep in any area could trigger a chain reaction.
Even Napoleon III’s death was within the scope of calculations. If he had persisted for a few more years, Franz would have had to completely overhaul his European strategy.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Your Majesty, the situation in France is even more chaotic than we had anticipated. With Napoleon III’s recent death, the French governnt has been plunged into a power struggle.
The soon-to-be-crowned Napoleon IV lacks the prestige to control the governnt veterans, and the major factions are currently fighting fiercely.
If their internal strife doesn’t end, the French won’t have the energy to intervene in international affairs anyti soon. I’m afraid our plan to lure them in won’t work.”
The internal conflict within the French governnt was sothing Napoleon III had deliberately created. By pitting his ministers against each other, the emperor could ensure his own authority.
Napoleon III’s untily death left too little ti to pave the way for Crown Prince Eugène. Without having had the chance to build his prestige, he cannot command the respect of his ministers.
In this situation, allowing the ministers to clash among themselves would allow the young emperor to erge as a diator. After a few years, once his position is secure, he can then replace the ministers as needed.
This is a very clever political strategy that can ensure a smooth transition of imperial power. However, the side effects are significant. A governnt that is constantly embroiled in internal conflict will waste a lot of energy, which could hinder the country’s developnt.
France is a large country with a substantial economy, so developing a bit slower isn’t a big problem. There are almost no external threats, and no country would be foolish enough to invade France.
A France constantly engaged in internal struggles is unlikely to cause trouble abroad. Even if it still covets the resources of Belgium and the Rhineland, with so many factions pulling them back in different directions, it would be difficult to turn those ambitions into reality.
As long as the French main forces stay put, Austria cannot do much to them. According to the plan, the idea was to tempt France into deploying troops to the Rhineland, while Austria would unite the rest of Europe in forming an anti-French coalition.
Although France appears strong, it is no longer as formidable as it was during the Napoleonic era. Another round of anti-French wars would break them.
Franz nodded, “It doesn’t matter. The chances of that plan working were always slim. It would be ideal if it succeeded, but failure is acceptable. France is not our real enemy, nor are the other European nations. Our greatest enemy has always been ourselves.”
Franz couldn’t help but feel emotional as he said the last sentence. After many years of developnt, Austria had finally reached a point where it could disregard external threats.
The European continent had already been thrown into disarray. In the standoff between Prussia and Russia, only France remained a potential threat, but even that could no longer endanger Austria.
From the beginning, the Austrian governnt had two strategies: to restrain the strength of Prussia and Russia or to defeat France.
Whichever goal was achieved, Austria would be free from the danger of fighting on multiple fronts. Since defeating France was no easy task, they would continue with the strategy of containing Prussia and Russia.
This was learned from the British. As John Bull implented the policy of maintaining a balance of power in Europe, they also maximized their own benefits. Franz naturally wanted to follow suit.
...
In Berlin, upon receiving the news of Napoleon III’s death, William I was nearly ecstatic. It was as if he had found a pillow just as he was feeling sleepy.
With Russia and Austria currently beating the Ottoman Empire and the French emperor dead, it seed that the biggest obstacle to William I’s accession to the Polish throne had been removed.
However, Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman reminded him, “Your Majesty, things aren’t as optimistic as they seem. Napoleon III’s death only ans that the likelihood of French intervention has decreased, but it doesn’t an they won’t intervene at all.
While the Near East War has tied up so of Austria’s attention, they still have the capability to interfere. We must also consider the reaction of the British. The British governnt does not want to see us rise too strongly.
If we want to annex Poland, it would be best to gain the support of two of the three major powers—France, Austria, and Britain—or at least their tacit approval.”
William I sobered up instantly, realizing that it was too soon to celebrate. Without securing the agreent of these three powers, annexing Poland would remain an illusion.
“That’s indeed a problem. If we were to negotiate with France and Austria, what price would we have to pay?”
After all, interests are always the best way to resolve issues. If a solution can’t be found, it’s likely because the interests involved aren’t sufficient. Though European nations oppose Prussia’s annexation of Poland, if the benefits are enough, opposition can turn into support.
Choosing to buy off France and Austria was a pragmatic necessity. Russia was Prussia’s mortal enemy, so negotiating with them was out of the question, and since Britain’s strength was mainly naval, the likelihood of them intervening militarily was very small.
Geoffrey Friedman thought for a mont and said, “Given the current situation, we can promise France and Austria the following: support Austria in annexing the Ottoman Empire and the German Federal Empire, and support France in annexing Belgium in exchange. If necessary, we could even promise the French the Rhineland region and offer Austria parts of southern Poland.”
Promises are one thing, but whether they can be fulfilled depends on the actual situation. Just like when the Ottoman Empire was being divided, Franz had promised most of the Balkans to the Russians, but in the end, Austria ended up controlling most of the region.
The Austrian governnt technically didn’t break their promise. The additional territory was purchased from the French, not seized from the Ottomans.
However, when it cos to Prussia, the situation changes. France and Austria are too strong, making it unlikely for things to shift unexpectedly. These promises made now are likely to beco reality in the future.
The room fell into silence, as everyone weighed the pros and cons. In this regard, Bismarck had a much bolder approach. He had given Napoleon III empty promises, only to turn around and renege on them.
After a brief hesitation, Pri Minister Moltke broke the silence, “We can try to push for it. If we manage to annex Poland, the power gap between us and France and Austria will shrink significantly, and the situation will be very different by then.
Later on, we can redirect France’s attention to the Low Countries and Austria’s to the Ottoman Empire. And let’s not forget the reaction of other European countries. Perhaps the promises we make now won’t all need to be fulfilled.”
This kind of thing had happened before in Europe. If other nations intervened and prevented the deal from going through smoothly, France and Austria wouldn’t be able to bla Prussia for breaking its promises.
This aligned with William I’s thinking, as he had long planned for the British to step in at the last mont and prevent France and Austria from expanding into Central Europe.
After a pause, William I made his decision: “Then let’s take action. First, we’ll establish a fait accompli, and then we can negotiate. The results will be more favorable for us.”
If possible, Wilhelm I would have preferred to annex the entire German Federal Empire. But unfortunately, the difficulty was too great. Neither Britain, France, nor Austria would allow it.
Austria’s strategy for unifying Germany is well known, and even for the sake of political posturing, the Austrian governnt would intervene with all its might.
The French also had ambitions to annex the territory west of the Rhine River, but the German Federal Empire stood in the way, and Prussia’s Rhineland region was an isolated enclave. If Prussia were to annex the German Federal Empire, thereby connecting its territories, it would be much harder for France to make any moves.
Unlike in the original tiline, to prevent Austria from annexing the German Federal Empire, Britain invested significant resources into the Confederation, treating it almost like a favored son.
The close relationship between the German Federal Empire and Britain even surpasses that of Belgium and the Netherlands. The Confederation is playing a delicate balancing act, with its navy entirely equipped in the British style and its army mostly using Austrian equipnt.
Thanks to strong diplomatic ties, the Austrian governnt is unable to take military action against the German Federal Empire. If Austria wants to unify the German region, it must do so through negotiations. As long as Austria can win over the European powers, they won’t oppose unification.
This seemingly cooperative stance is actually a very clever political maneuver, shifting the bla for obstructing German unification onto international forces.
No matter the outco, the ruling class’s interests won’t be hard. They don’t even need to worry about national defense. If trouble arises, they can legitimately call on Austria for assistance.
The Austrian governnt’s decision to abandon its national policy of German unification was influenced by such factors.
While the unification appears cooperative, there are hidden complexities. Achieving peaceful unification through negotiations would give the governnt only nominal control, and it could also sow the seeds of future division within the empire.
Franz is not one to chase empty titles. re nominal authority isn’t worth risking the entire empire for Austria.
And so, they all play their parts. The more the German Federal Empire cooperated, the more European nations worried that Austria’s unification of the German region would quickly lead to consolidation and a sharp rise in power. As a result, they go to great lengths to block Austria from annexing the German Federal Empire.
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Warsaw suddenly found itself abuzz with discussions about the Polish royal succession, with experts and scholars flooding the newspapers with comntary, attributing all of Poland’s problems to the lack of a king.
This wasn’t baseless talk as they even had evidence. Every major European power had a monarch, whether a king or an emperor.
Republican nations, on the other hand, couldn’t even elect a proper leader. The Arican Civil War had already been turned into a negative example in Europe, with the concept of “rotating emperors” being touted as the main cause of the conflict.
Who knows if it’s true or not? Monarchist countries have been promoting this narrative for so long that people just started to believe it.
The more radical newspapers had even begun openly accusing the governnt of deliberately preventing the appointnt of a king to maintain their own power.
That claim wasn’t entirely wrong. The Polish governnt indeed didn’t want a king to interfere with their authority.
But now that this issue had been exposed, they absolutely couldn’t admit it. This was still the era of monarchies, and when Poland gained independence, it had established itself as a constitutional monarchy.
It was clearly written in the constitution, and the Polish provisional governnt couldn’t afford to bear the bla for this. Seeing the crowds of protesters outside, Pri Minister Dąbrowski knew they could no longer delay the matter.
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