Any grand strategy requires long-term preparation and cannot be completed overnight. Austria’s primary strategy at present was still to promote the Second Industrial Revolution and develop the African continent.
The Middle East ranked second, and as for other strategies, they were more like “catching rabbits while cutting grass.” Success would be welco, but failure wouldn’t matter much.
Another few decades of patience and the overall situation would be set. This was a lesson learned from the Aricans—after all, the experience of successful nations always holds so value.
Tricking other countries into falling into a trap wasn’t easy, especially in this era of heroes, where there were far too many clever minds.
In recent years, the French had been lying low, consolidating their gains. Napoleon III’s health was already showing signs of decline, and at this ti, he was busy paving the way for Napoleon IV.
Given this context, the French clearly weren’t going to risk everything and start trouble. Even if one wanted to sche against them, there was no opportunity to do so.
Franz anticipated that not only would Napoleon III follow a conservative strategy in his final days, but after Napoleon IV’s succession, France would likely continue to adopt a conservative approach for a long ti.
Even Austria, along with other European countries, had supported the Italian independence movent, but it had been in vain. At the height of its power, France easily suppressed these minor disturbances.
Don’t be misled by Prussia’s gamble paying off in another tiline and think that France was easy to defeat. In reality, the French army still had world-class combat strength. If Napoleon III hadn’t taken personal command and made a ss, the outco could have been very different.
In terms of overall national strength, France was second only to Britain and Austria, far surpassing other European nations. Factoring in all aspects, even the Russian Empire—next in line—had only half of France’s power.
Modern warfare was all about logistics. The advantage of an industrial nation over an agrarian one was imnse, and sheer numbers couldn’t compensate for it.
To ensure the smooth execution of their plans, the Austrian governnt was secretly plotting with the Russians against the Ottoman Empire, while simultaneously stirring up trouble within Prussia.
...
In an estate on the outskirts of Berlin, Prussian radicals were holding a secret eting.
The eting was chaired by Count Marcel Jansen, the leader of the young Junker nobles.
“Gentlen, we have just received a piece of news through secret channels: the Russians are attempting to ally with Austria to plot against the Ottoman Empire.”
The atmosphere in the room grew tense. Although no one had much fondness for the Ottoman Empire, and many even wanted to see it fall, this was certainly not the right ti. While facing their major adversary, Russia, the Ottoman Empire remained Prussia’s ally.
The last Russo-Prussian War had proven the Ottoman Empire’s value. At a critical mont in the war, the Ottoman Empire had stabbed the Russians in the back, hastening the Russian governnt’s surrender.
A young officer asked nervously, “Count, has the Austrian governnt agreed?”
Ally or not, Prussia and the Ottoman Empire were separated by Austria, and if anything went wrong, Prussia would be too far away to offer help.
Facing the combined forces of Russia and Austria, even the Ottoman Empire at its peak might not have cowered, but now they can’t handle either one.
Marcel Jansen shook his head and said, “We don’t know. Information at that level would be known to no more than ten people within Austria and Russia, and such details wouldn’t easily leak out. If not for a chance discovery, we wouldn’t have even learned about their secret talks.
However, given the Habsburgs’ long-standing enmity with the Ottoman Empire, it’s only a matter of ti before Austria makes a move against them.”
This was essentially a confirmation, and it was no surprise they ca to this conclusion. A glance at the history books would show that the Habsburg dynasty and the Ottoman Empire had been entangled for hundreds of years.
The Habsburgs’ European hegemony, or even their near-global dominance, had been overturned by the “sacrilegious alliance” ford by the Ottoman Empire and France. In that mont of crisis, the Habsburgs almost lost Vienna.
(TN: Refers to the Franco-Ottoman alliance or the Franco-Turkish alliance. As the first non-ideological alliance in effect between a Christian and Muslim state, the alliance attracted heavy controversy for its ti and caused a scandal throughout Christendom. Carl Jacob Burckhardt (1947) called it “the sacrilegious union of the lily and the crescent”. It lasted intermittently for more than two and a half centuries, until the Napoleonic campaign in Ottoman Egypt, in 1798–1801.)
France was strong, and seeking revenge against them was extrely difficult. Now that there was little conflict of interest between Austria and France, the likelihood of the two clashing was very low.
The Ottoman Empire was different. Not only did they have a long-standing feud with Austria, but more importantly, the Ottoman Empire was in decline.
“Falling behind ans getting beaten,” was the fundantal law of the world.
If Austria attacked another country, they might need to consider European public opinion and dostic sentint. But attacking the Ottoman Empire? There would be no need for any such considerations—they could just go ahead and strike.
The Ottoman Empire was so universally despised that, while European governnts might oppose it for political reasons, the general public would not care if the Ottomans took a beating.
The young officer, Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, asked, “What should we do? If Austria and Russia join forces, the Ottomans definitely won’t be able to hold out, and even if we wanted to intervene, it probably wouldn’t help.”
“Exactly! Austria is in the way—we wouldn’t even be able to support them.”
“Should we launch a Russo-Prussian War ahead of ti?”
“No, that would drag Austria into it.”
...
Seeing the group in a heated discussion, Marcel Jansen waved his hand to signal for silence.
“Gentlen, the situation isn’t as dire as it seems. If Austria and Russia intend to make a move against the Ottoman Empire, this could also be an opportunity for us.
Countless instances have shown that allies are unreliable. In critical monts, we must rely on our own strength.
If we can annex Poland while Russia and Austria are preoccupied, the situation would change entirely.”
At this point, Marcel Jansen paused, giving everyone ti to process the idea.
Annexing Poland was not a new concept. There had always been voices within Prussia calling for this. With Poland under its control, Prussia would be almost invincible.
After rging with Poland, while the combined strength might still lag behind Russia’s, the forces Prussia could deploy to the battlefield would be nearly as strong as Russia’s.
Poland had an extensive water transport system, and by building a few more railways, the transportation problem could be solved. On the other hand, the Russian governnt would take decades to fix its own transport issues.
Even if they prepared in advance, while the Russian army might not run out of food, there would still be significant problems with strategic supplies. Not all materials could be stockpiled ahead of ti, and many couldn’t be stored for long periods.
These advantages might not guarantee Prussia a victory in war, but they would ensure it could defend its territory.
Russia did have more people, but after rging with Poland, Prussia’s population would not be small either, becoming nearly half of Russia’s. By then, the Russian governnt could no longer rely on sheer numbers to win the war.
Helmuth von Moltke spoke up, “Count, this will be difficult to achieve. The Ottoman Empire is no longer the force it was two centuries ago. They can’t hold off both Russia and Austria at the sa ti.
Besides, if we try to annex Poland, the other European countries will never agree—Britain and France will likely oppose it as well.”
This was the crux of the matter. If it weren’t for everyone’s opposition, Prussia would have annexed Poland right after the last Russo-Prussian War.
Marcel Jansen smiled calmly and then said, “This is where skill cos into play. You all rember how Austria established the new Holy Roman Empire, right?
What did tternich do to get the European nations to compromise? We can follow a similar approach. First, create a fait accompli, and later offer concessions based on the situation to gain recognition from other countries.
The key is convincing Britain, France, and Austria—the Russians are already our enemies, so their position doesn’t matter.
We have to trust in the ability of our Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Convincing the three nations isn’t impossible. For example, we could support Austria’s annexation of the German Federal Empire. I don’t believe the Austrian governnt wouldn’t be tempted. Once Austria takes that step, do you think Britain and France will still be focused on us?”
For the sake of advancing Prussia, Marcel Jansen didn’t mind making concessions. If it weren’t for the fact that there were many “idealistic youths” present, he might have even suggested ceding the Rhineland to France.
Once Austria and France were on board, the fait accompli would be established. Even if the British were unhappy, they wouldn’t have the capacity to oppose them.
So had already guessed Marcel Jansen’s plan, but for their own interests, no one pointed it out.
If you looked closely, you’d notice that most of the attendees were military Junkers or “agricultural Junkers.” Their wealth was tied to land, and to them, the fertile lands of Poland were far more valuable than the less productive northern territories.
A young officer objected, “That won’t work, Count. If we abandon the German Federal Empire, Austria will have no one to challenge them. Even if we annex Poland, we still wouldn’t be able to compete with them.”
Austria was already powerful, and the European nations had an unspoken agreent to suppress Austria’s unification of the German states, with Prussia being one of the participants.
Marcel Jansen shook his head and said, “Reiss, you’re still too young. If Austria annexes the German Federal Empire, who will be the most concerned?
Our current enemy is Russia. It’s not our job to restrain Austria’s power—Britain and France won’t just sit by and watch them expand.”
This bold thinking wasn’t sothing Marcel Jansen ca up with on his own. He had learned it from Austria.
On the surface, it seed like the Austrian governnt was always a step too late in curbing its rivals. But if you looked at Austria’s territorial changes, you’d notice sothing fishy.
It wasn’t that Austria was allowing France and Russia to expand—it was that they were secretly making deals. Everyone was expanding together. Marcel Jansen found this approach very appealing. If Austria could do it, why couldn’t Prussia?
...
The seeds had been sown, now it was just a matter of waiting for them to take root and grow.
The day after the secret eting, Marcel Jansen casually appeared at the royal palace. He was also young William’s equestrian instructor, so his presence at the palace was quite normal.
At the royal race course, several princes were practicing their equestrian skills, and at so point, William I had already arrived at the scene.
“What was their reaction?”
Marcel Jansen responded, “Everyone supports the annexation of Poland. Only a few people opposed abandoning the German Federal Empire, but I managed to persuade them.”
William I nodded, “Good. Quietly begin pushing things forward, but don’t make any bold moves before the Near East War breaks out again.”
“Yes, Your Majesty!”
...
If anyone had overheard their conversation, they would have been shocked to learn that the real supporter behind the radical faction was actually William I.
Upon reflection, this wouldn’t seem so surprising. It was quite common for a monarch to plant trusted allies within various organizations. After all, if the king didn’t have control over a radical group like this, how could he feel at ease?
A king’s strength cos from power. Without it, what could he do besides being a puppet?
At that mont, William I’s heart was also unsettled. This proposal had been suggested by one of his advisors, but he strongly suspected that Austria or France was secretly behind it.
However, for the sake of the potential benefits, William I decided to play dumb. Let Austria annex the German Federal Empire, and give the Rhineland to France—did they really think he was a fool who didn’t understand the political consequences of such actions?
When that happens, dostic nationalists will surely revolt. While accepting this plan, William I had already prepared to deal with it.
The annexation of Poland was a must, but the German Federal Empire had to be maintained, and the Rhineland could not be ceded to France.
He was simply waiting for the right opportunity to leak the information to the British, allowing them to disrupt the hidden mastermind’s plan, so that Prussia could secure the greatest advantage.
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