London
Ever since the Austrian governnt proposed to deal with the issue of Arica first, it imdiately attracted the attention of the British governnt.
As the worlds leading colonial empire, British presence could be found everywhere. Not to ntion North Arica, where Canada lay, British interests in North Arica were among the largest among European countries.
As significant as the Arican interests were, they still paled in comparison to those in Europe. John Bulls national policy had always prioritized maintaining the balance on the continent. With the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, the British governnt had no choice but to divert more resources to the European mainland.
Foreign Secretary Raistlin analyzed, The situation on the European continent has beco very dangerous. Once the Russians concentrate all their efforts, the Prussians may not be able to withstand them. We must be prepared to intervene in this war.
Now the Prussians and Russians are still in a stalemate, but this does not an that the Prussians have the strength to resist the Russians. Three main factors are causing the deadlock on the battlefield:
Firstly, the Russian governnt does not regard the Kingdom of Prussia as a significant adversary. Until now, the Russians have not exerted their full strength;
Secondly, the Russians have encountered financial problems and cannot afford the huge military expenditures. The Russian governnt wants to win the war with as little military spending as possible;
Thirdly, the Prussians, who hold the upper hand, are reluctant to engage in a decisive battle with the Russians. They cannot afford to lose this war. The Prussian governnt plans to exploit the Russians financial weaknesses to force the Russian governnt to compromise.
If any of these three factors change, significant changes may occur on the European continent, and so we must remain vigilant.
If the Prussians win the war it is still acceptable, but if the Russians win, Russia, France, and Austria will likely divide up the Kingdom of Prussia.
In recent decades, the strengths of France and Austria have developed rapidly, with their respective land and naval forces ranking second or third globally, making them our biggest enemies after the Russians.
If we allow them to continue expanding, they will inevitably threaten us sooner or later. Fortunately, Russia, France, and Austria are all squeezed into the European continent, which creates an opportunity for us.
Currently, the European continent is generally balanced among the three powers, with Russia having the strength to suppress only one adversary at a ti, unable to simultaneously dominate both of them.
To maintain its dominant position, Nicholas I chose to ally with Austria, reducing one enemy.
However, as the balance of power between the two countries changes, the importance of the Russo-Austrian alliance to Austria is gradually diminishing, presenting an opportunity to dismantle this alliance.
In comparison, the Arican Civil War is of secondary importance. Although the geographical location of the United States is incredibly advantageous, they are only a newly established immigrant country whose people lack strong cohesion, and it will take a very long ti for them to catch up.
Moreover, due to the Civil War, we have an opportunity to divide the United States. Originally, we planned to split the United States into five countries, but due to the turmoil in Europe and the limited resources available to each country, this is no longer feasible.
However, given the current situation, with a little push from us, the division between the North and the South will beco inevitable, and we can even support the independence of the Native Aricans.
After the split, it will take even longer for the United States to develop. We can also support the Southern governnt to counterbalance the Northern governnt, maintaining the balance on the Arican continent.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Agarwal questioned, The plan sounds good, but is it really feasible? What if there are unexpected changes on the Russo-Prussian battlefield?
Foreign Secretary Raistlin calmly replied, No one can guarantee that these plans will succeed, but what we can do now is act quickly.
We must force both the North and the South to the negotiating table before the end of the Russo-Prussian War. On this point, Austrias position aligns with ours.
The Austrian governnt is very eager to intervene in the Arican Civil War. Austrian flags have already appeared in Central Arica, and there is even a mber of the Habsburgs serving as emperor in xico.
For whatever reason, the leader of the Habsburg restoration needs a divided Arica.
The Austrian governnt is now eager to end the Arican Civil War, mainly to reclaim its resources. The impact of the Russo-Prussian War on Austria is much greater than it is on us.
Currently, Spain is constrained by internal turmoil and has lost much of its influence in the Four-Nation Intervention Alliance. As long as we and Austria have a united front, we can already influence the alliances decisions.
In fact, the Four-Nation Intervention Alliance has now beco the Three-Nation Intervention Alliance. Problems have arisen within Spain, and the extent of the governnts determination to intervene in the Arican Civil War has beco unknown.
Even if they wish to intervene in the Arican Civil War, whether they can fulfill their commitnt to sending troops remains uncertain.
However, the Four-Nation Intervention Alliance would still have more influence than the Three-Nation Intervention Alliance. While Spains strength is already at the bottom among the great powers, its political influence still remains.
Especially in the Aricas, where there is a large population of Hispanics. The stance of the Spanish governnt can influence the choices of many people.
Of course, John Bull cannot simply kick the Spanish out of the Intervention Alliance. But inevitably, Spains say has been diminished.
After a mont of silence, John Russell said slowly, Lets end the Arican Civil War as soon as possible; waiting any longer could lead to unforeseen changes. Lets also settle accounts with the Aricans for their support of the Irish independence organization this ti.
Dont think John Bull only cares about interests. They are also good at holding grudges.
Lincolns final counterattack did disperse the attention of various countries and bought ti for the federal governnt to avoid being divided into five, but it also fueled animosity.
Evidence? Sorry, since when have the great powers needed evidence to act? As long as they perceive it to be true, thats enough.
Franz didnt send anyone to find evidence of Arican support for the Hungarian independence organization, and neither would the British bother with such futile efforts.
Only the weak look for evidence to protest with. As the kings of this era, Britain, France, and Austria did not make any protests to the Aricans, but directly began preparing to retaliate.
This is the basic play of power politics in the 19th century. Only when there is no other option do people choose to protest; most of the ti, they retaliate directly.
After all, conflicts between nations were too frequent in those days. You stab in the back one day, and I stab back in secret the next. They have gone back and forth so many tis that its impossible to tell whos right and whos wrong.
Of course, having evidence would be better; it could exert pressure using public opinion. But ultimately, the ga is about strength and ans.
......
After a round of ergency consultations, on March 7, 1865, the Four-Nation Intervention Alliance of Britain, France, Austria, and Spain finally reached a consensus. The four nations issued diplomatic notes to both the North and South under the pretext of maintaining peace in the Aricas.
The British, with the strongest presence in the Aricas, naturally assud the role of leader. The British envoy to the United States, Mark Oliver, represented the intervention alliance in negotiations with both sides.
On March 8, the four powers conducted joint military exercises in the eastern and western Pacific regions simultaneously.
Over two hundred warships from the four nations assembled for the exercises along the coastal areas of the United States, with residents in so coastal areas hearing the thunderous sounds of cannon fire.
anwhile, the ongoing secret negotiations between the North and South reached an impasse due to issues of interest distribution, hindering any consensus.
At this juncture, the intervention of the four countries prompted President Lincolns imdiate concern that the secret negotiations had been exposed, triggering dissatisfaction among the involved nations.
To intervene in the Arican Civil War, these countries had invested a great deal of manpower and resources. What if the two sides reached a compromise privately? How could the interests of these countries be guaranteed?
Secretary of State Seward analyzed, Mr. President, including you and , no more than ten people are aware of the secret negotiations, and these individuals hold high positions. There is no reason for any leakage of information.
The sudden intervention of Britain, France, Austria, and Spain is most likely due to the European situation. They are unwilling to wait any longer, which is a good thing for us.
The plan was successful, but Lincoln did not feel much joy. The current negotiations have reached a stalemate, with both the North and the South unwilling to back down over the control of Maryland.
Maryland is also one of the slave states, and the Confederacy has already occupied it. The slave owners in the state shed blood for the Confederate governnt, with over 60,000 people joining the Confederate army.
Abandoning this territory would undoubtedly damage the reputation of the Confederate governnt and weaken the cohesion of the mber states.
The Confederacy cannot afford to give up, and neither can the Union. Washington is adjacent to Maryland, and without Maryland as a buffer, Washington would be exposed to the enemy at any mont.
No, its already exposed to the enemys eyes. The neighboring state of Virginia joined the Confederate governnt early on.
At the outbreak of the Civil War, parts of Virginia near Washington remained loyal to the Union, which spared Washington from imdiate pressure on the frontlines.
However, this was of no use, as most of Washingtons urban areas have now fallen, and the federal governnt is only holding onto a few strongholds, indicating that the defense of Washington is still ongoing.
Since the secret negotiations have begun, both sides have tacitly ceased large-scale combat. Otherwise, everyone would have heard news of the fall of Washington by now.
Regardless, Lincoln still does not want to give up on Maryland. Even if he is not popular in Maryland and may not win many votes there.
This is indeed good news, but it also cos with great trouble. With the intervention of the four nations, we will not be able to force the Confederate governnt to make concessions.
If the interests were enough, I dont think the Confederacy would mind inviting the intervention of the British, French, Austrians, and the Spanish into the negotiations. By then, we will beco passive.
Lincoln didnt entertain the illusion of gaining support from the four countries; it was impossible to achieve. A powerful United States does not align with the interests of various nations. Moreover, following recent support for revolutionary organizations in those countries, both sides have already taken opposite positions.
Knowing is one thing, but it doesnt an he will concede to the Confederate governnt. As a politician, he must consider the political implications rather than just looking at surface-level benefits.
Perhaps, superficially, relinquishing Maryland to prematurely end this civil war may incur smaller costs than the repercussions of foreign intervention. However, politically, can the federal governnts various states accept it?
Its worth noting that Maryland supports the federal governnt, albeit this support is the result of Lincolns coercive thods. But this should not overshadow Marylands status as one of the many federal states.
Now, abandoning this state will further diminish the loyalty of the states to the federal governnt, inevitably weakening its authority.
In contrast, relinquishing Maryland under the intervention of the great powers may yield even greater benefits, with higher public acceptance.
At that ti, it will be possible to whitewash the situation, framing it not as the governnts lack of effort but rather the overpowering strength of the enemy, leaving no choice but to compromise.
Especially for individual politicians, choosing the forr may lead to accusations of collaboration with Southern spies and eventual downfall, whereas opting for the latter could at least garner so sympathy.
Even if their political careers co to an end, its still better than facing universal condemnation, isnt it?
Secretary of State Seward nonchalantly said, Anyway, weve reached this point, and the situation is already beyond our control. If we can safeguard the core interests of the federal governnt, then well have fulfilled the voters trust.
Indeed, overall they have perford well, and one might even say excellently. The fact that they managed to integrate so many federal states and fight with the South for so many years is proof enough of their capabilities.
No matter how capable they are, it cannot conceal the fact that they are, in essence, failures. Secretary of State Seward has co to terms with this; after all, their term is about to expire.
In the upcoming elections, Seward has no intention of participating to avoid potential embarrassnt. Whoever the unlucky individual elected next ti is, let them deal with the ss left behind by their predecessors.
No, if it werent for the war delaying the election, the next governnt would already have been elected.
Nobody is foolish enough to step forward as a scapegoat before a ceasefire treaty is signed.
Hence, both the Republican and Democratic parties have consistently argued that during tis of war, many citizens of federal states are unable to participate in voting, rendering the elections unable to represent the will of all the people.
Naturally, the elections were postponed until after the war, extending the Lincoln administrations term.
Otherwise, Seward and the others would have felt relieved imdiately. With less than a month left until the end of their term, they could have easily waited it out.
The Lincoln administration must bear the responsibility for the division of Arica before they can pack up and leave; this is a shared desire among all parties.
Of course, Lincoln could also participate in the next presidential election. However, as a failure, his public approval rating is extrely low, with virtually no chance of winning.
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