At last, Lin Shiping combined all speculations and arrived at a fairly definitive conclusion.
Within the next three to six months, the probability of a large-scale war erupting in the Southern Subcontinent exceeded 80%, although the Newland Republic would not directly send troops.
Simply put, the war would be conducted through Fanluo Country’s efforts to unify the entire Southern Subcontinent.
Through diplomatic efforts, so ti could be bought, but as long as the Newland Republic was willing to invest sufficient resources, the outbreak of war couldn’t be prevented.
The rationale was also straightforward: the Liangxia Empire would never allow Fanluo Country to dominate the Southern Subcontinent.
As for the direction of Aus, Lin Shiping wasn’t too worried.
In his words, as long as the Liangxia Empire didn’t commit the folly of self-destruction and the Imperial Navy remained powerful enough, within the next three years, the Newland Republic would not dare to target Aus, at most it would make so moves on Aus and then seize the opportunity to take over the Howay Islands.
Relatively speaking, the Howay Islands were the key.
However, preparation also required ti, and the right opportunity had to be awaited.
The forr didn’t concern the Military Intelligence Bureau, nor could it have an impact; after all, the Newland Navy was sizable and would definitely elevate its combat readiness level after the outbreak of war. In a fast scenario, perhaps one month would suffice. In a slower scenario, several months, but the Newland Navy would definitely be able to complete preparatory work for the war.
The key, actually, was the latter.
This opportunity was determined by the warfare on the Southern Subcontinent.
Simply put, once the Imperial Navy concentrated its fleet in the Fan Fla Ocean, the Newland Navy could then launch operations to recover the Howay Islands by exploiting a local advantage in military strength.
After the conflict erupted in the Southern Subcontinent, how much military force would the Imperial Navy need to commit in that direction?
Speaking of which, this was also key to the past decade and the implentation of the "Two Plus Two Strategy" following the Boi War.
The "Two Plus Two" referred to comprehensive warfare in two main directions and large-scale localized warfare in two secondary directions.
As per the original plan, the two main directions were the mainland battlefield and the East Ocean battlefield, while the two secondary directions pointed to the Southern Subcontinent and the New Moon Region.
Within the strategic planning of the Empire, the Southern Subcontinent was only a secondary direction.
The problem was that in the "Two Plus Two Strategy," there was no consideration that the Newland Republic could provide substantial strategic assistance to Fanluo Country.
This whole strategy had to be considered within the context of the Third Global War.
Implicitly, when the Empire had to send troops to the Southern Subcontinent, it had already begun battling Tiaoman Empire and the Newland Republic, blocking the mariti shipping lanes leading to the Southern Subcontinent.
Under this backdrop, there was no question about how much of the fleet would need to be deployed in the Fan Fla Ocean.
The rationale was clear: the Empire was in a defensive strategic position in the direction of the Fan Fla Ocean. Its sole purpose was to control Boss Bay, not to dominate the Southern Subcontinent, only to prevent the enemy from using the Southern Subcontinent, thus the strategy taken was rely to strategize a blockade of the Southern Subcontinent.
According to this strategy, the Imperial Navy did not need to deploy heavy troops in the Fan Fla Ocean during a major war.
Among the 15 operational carrier battle groups of the Imperial Navy, nine remained in the East Ocean, while the remaining six were used on the Sunset Ocean side.
From a military standpoint, employing submarines and shore-based air forces to cut off mariti shipping routes to the Southern Subcontinent was sufficient to bring Fanluo Country into line.
Indeed, under this strategy, military force investnt in the Southern Subcontinent was very limited and only a secondary direction.
Now, the situation was such that the Newland Republic definitely would not participate in the war imdiately. Before stabilizing the situation in the Northwest War Zone, the Empire would not declare war on the Newland Republic; hence it couldn’t employ strategic blockade against Fanluo Country and thus might not be able to make the Fanluo Authority recognize the overall situation.
With the support of the Newland Republic, Fanluo Country could indeed develop the Southern Subcontinent into a main battlefield.
This required enough fleet investnt in that direction.
Thus, here lied the most critical problem.
According to a report submitted by the Navy, even if war mobilization were completed within three months, allowing 15 carrier battle groups to enter a state of deploynt, then after half a year, only 10 carrier battle groups could truly remain in a deploynt state, because the first five carriers deployed must return to the shipyard for major repairs. Relying only on ten carrier battle groups, the Imperial Navy couldn’t possibly maintain strategic superiority in three oceans at the sa ti.
Technically speaking, it wouldn’t be possible in two oceans.
Moreover, the combat operations in Boss Bay were not even finished yet!
Based on this analysis, the Imperial Navy needed to maintain sufficient military forces in three directions, Boss Bay, North Fan Fla Ocean, and East Ocean. Therefore, three months later, at the ti of warfare erupting in the Southern Subcontinent, the maximum number of carrier battle groups the Ministry of Navy could deploy in its surrounding areas was only four, and the two battle groups deployed in the Mua Sea would also have to undertake combat operations in the direction of Boss Bay.
This force was simply not sufficient to deter Fanluo Country.
If it ca to battle, at least three carrier battle groups would need to be deployed just in Bengal Bay, and at least three more carrier battle groups in the Mua Sea facing Fanluo Country.
Here lay the problem.
At that ti, no matter what, it would not be possible to use six carrier battle groups to confront Fanluo Country.
As the discussion concluded, Qin Fenglie proposed a thod. Under the guise of war mobilization, imdiately activate those large carriers that had been mothballed after the Boi War.
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